What Lies Beneath: Understanding the Roots of Division
My Lens for Understanding What's Going On: The Four Truths of Conflict
Happy Thanksgiving
Author’s Note: If you’re looking for a break from political analysis, check out my essay and podcast from 2022: "Three Reasons to Celebrate Thanksgiving". For those ready to dive in, let’s explore how we can navigate this pivotal political moment together.
Understanding Politics Through a Conflict Transformation Lens
As someone deeply committed to integrating tools like mediation, dialogue, and deliberation to heal U.S. political culture, this moment in history feels particularly intense. Many have asked for my take on the 2024 election and its implications.
Honestly, I feel a mix of fear, curiosity, and motivation. It’s hard to know if we’re veering toward democratic collapse, enduring a reality check for our polarized systems, or on the cusp of profound transformation. What’s clear is that the status quo isn’t working. The choice before us is stark: more democracy or less democracy. For me, it’s always about more.
This essay builds on earlier reflections about renovating democracy (see this essay) and the three paths ahead: protect, demolish, or transform. Here, I introduce a framework to understand the deeper dynamics of political conflict and the opportunities they reveal. It’s rooted in what I call the Four Truths of Conflict1—principles that can help us navigate political tensions and design a path forward.
The Four Truths of Conflict
These truths are a lens for understanding and resolving conflict at any scale, offering clarity about underlying patterns and pathways for constructive engagement:
Conflict isn’t about what it seems to be about.
Beneath every conflict are unmet needs and systemic forces.
➡ What deeper needs or dynamics are driving this conflict?Everyone involved in the problem must be part of the solution.
Exclusion fuels unresolved tensions. If people are left out, they’ll find ways to include themselves—often disruptively.
➡ Who is being excluded, and how can they be invited into the process?The process and the outcome are the same.
How we engage shapes what we create. Every outcome sets the stage for future dynamics.
➡ Does the process reflect the values and qualities we want in the outcome?There will never be a final outcome.
Democracy and life are ongoing experiments. Trying to “solve” everything at once leads to oversimplification and gridlock.
➡ Are we embracing long-term, adaptive solutions, or falling into the “conclusion illusion”?
These truths not only diagnose the problem but also guide us toward solutions that are inclusive, sustainable, and systemic.With this lens, let’s analyze the 2024 election and its deeper implications for U.S. politics, while looking ahead to how we might chart a path forward.
The Real Drivers of 2024: What If It's Not About Donald Trump?
At first glance, the 2024 election feels like a high-stakes battle over Donald Trump—his policies, leadership, and polarizing impact, and the real concerns about his authoritarian inclinations.2 But the first truth of conflict reminds us that it’s rarely about what it seems to be about. Beneath the surface issue lies something deeper.
As the Democratic Party's post-mortem analysis highlights, the real drivers of this moment are alienation and frustration. Millions of Americans feel unheard, disconnected, and distrustful of the very systems meant to represent them. Voters are disillusioned by leaders who fail to address critical issues like economic insecurity and social fragmentation, leaving alienation at the heart of today’s polarization.3
This isn’t just about one election cycle or one man. It’s about a system failing to meet people’s needs. Beneath this anger lie universal human needs that are not being met: the need for belonging, agency, safety, and trust. Frameworks like nonviolent communication and interest-based mediation remind us that when those needs go unmet, frustration and division grow. Addressing these needs is critical for resolution, yet our system, built around binary choices and rivalries, is not equipped to address these deeper issues.
Beneath this anger lie universal needs: the need for belonging, agency, safety, and trust. Frameworks like Nonviolent Communication remind us that addressing these needs is critical for resolution. Yet our political systems fail to meet them.
Exclusion Breeds Chaos
The second truth of conflict reminds us that everyone involved in a problem needs to be included in finding a solution. Exclusion is unsustainable. When people are left out of decision-making, they will include themselves—on their own terms. This dynamic is evident across the political spectrum, from grassroots protests to full-blown rebellion.
As I wrote in June 2016 (“Invisible Voices,”) for many Trump supporters, this rebellion against the system is their way of demanding a seat at the table. Trump himself exemplifies this dynamic. As someone who has always felt excluded,45 Donald Trump (with his MAGA movement) is definitely going ahead and “including himself” — on his own terms.
This is where Twisted Sister’s “We’re Not Gonna Take It” becomes the perfect cultural metaphor.
The song is a shout for recognition—a demand to be seen and heard. It captures the raw energy of rebellion, the same defiance that drives people to disrupt systems that ignore their needs. When people feel excluded and unheard, they find ways to express themselves, often loudly or destructively.
This frustration transcends politics. We can almost all recognize this feeling. Groups across the political landscape, from Jan 6th protesters and Q-Anon researchers to drag queens and Ukrainian’s resisting Russia have used “We’re Not Gonna Take It” to express rebellion.6 It’s a cultural echo of what I described in my last article, “Holding onto Home,” the tension between those defending democracy’s cracks and those calling for demolition. But rebellion alone doesn’t address the real problem: our political system inherently sidelines the 50% who “lose” each election, leaving their needs and voices unaddressed.
My prediction for 2025: is that we will see protests from the left expressing that they don’t feel represented by the government.
Exclusion fuels a feedback loop of outrage, deepening divisions and mistrust. And yet, as the third truth reminds us, these outcomes are not inevitable—they are shaped by the systems we create.
Polarization Is a Systems Problem
The third truth of conflict reveals how the processes we use directly shape the outcomes we experience. An analysis through this lens quickly reveals how our current systems are designed in ways that perpetuate division and dysfunction, incentivizing and creating the very outcomes we find frustrating and destructive.
Let’s start by affirming that the U.S. Constitution is essentially an advanced (if outdated) conflict resolution system. It’s processes are designed to help us work together, but they are unable to manage modern complexity.
The clearest example of this is how our rivalrous system perpetuates division. The way we engage—through win/lose process—inherently creates polarization as the default outcome. It shouldn’t be surprising that a system that rewards winning over finding solutions is creating more and more division with every election cycle. This inability to address any important issues is bringing our country to the brink of catastrophe. What’s more, polarization is incentivized because the entire political-industrial complex benefits from keeping us divided.
In contrast, imagine a system that was designed to generate informed collaborative problem solving that aimed to find win-win outcomes. Such a system would be much more likely to generate unity across differences, and help us address our problems more effectively. And it’s possible.
There are many ways our political process is creating outcomes we don’t want.
For example, exclusion is built into the system. When decision-making prioritizes the interests of one group over others, many voices are left out, eroding trust. Similarly, the rise of misinformation is no accident—it thrives because our system incentivizes selective narratives and echo chambers, distorting facts to match what people want to hear.
We also fail to address complex problems because the system forces them into black-and-white, binary terms. Issues like abortion, gun rights, or immigration—deeply nuanced by their very nature—are reduced to simplistic “yes or no” debates. This kind of thinking doesn’t allow for the thoughtful, deliberative engagement necessary to find real solutions. Instead, soundbites dominate, leaving us ill-equipped to manage the complexity of real-world challenges.
And when decisions are made behind closed doors, in far off cities, with suspect interests at play, the lack of transparency fuels alienation and deepens mistrust. These flaws aren’t accidental—they’re outcomes of processes designed to concentrate power and incentivized towards competition.
To change these outcomes, we don’t need to rebuild the entires system, instead we need to change how we continue building it. Systems designed to support on inclusive participation, informed debate, deliberative engagement, and transparent decision-making in service of win-win solutions would produce solutions that work for more people and reduce division. As I’ll explore in the next essay, these principles can serve as a foundation for a better democracy.
Democracy as a Living Experiment
The fourth truth reminds us that democracy is not a destination but an ongoing experiment. There will never be a “final outcome,” because the conflicts we face are intrinsic to who we are. Immigration, gun rights, free speech, and race are not issues to be solved but questions to be navigated—forever.
This realization can feel daunting, but it’s also liberating. It shifts the goal from “winning” to creating processes that make these discussions more constructive, less painful, and ultimately more productive. Higher-order communication tools and inclusive systems allow us to engage with complexity rather than retreat from it.
This is especially timely as we approach 2026, the 250th anniversary of the United States. This milestone challenges us to ask: what kind of democracy do we want to sustain for the next 250 years? If we commit to designing systems that empower us to thrive in a reality of perpetual complexity, conflict and change, we can create a legacy that serves generations to come.
Conclusion: A Framework for Renewal
The Four Truths of Conflict remind us that democracy is not a fixed state but an ongoing process. We (yes you, me and all of us) are actually being and building democracy right now. By addressing the real drivers of conflict, ensuring inclusive participation, and embodying values like transparency and fairness, we can transform this moment of division into an opportunity for renewal.
In the coming weeks, I’ll explore these pathways more deeply, beginning with the principles of a better democracy. These principles—like inclusivity, deliberation, and win-win solutions—can serve as the foundation for systems that bring us together rather than driving us apart. Together, we can create a vision for transformation—not just for today, but for generations to come.
“Were Not Gonna Take It” (Full Video)
Trigger Warning: Angry parents. Start here to skip teenage flashback.
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Originally: Three Rules of Conflict Transformation